There are six major factors that will affect the economic trend and policy direction of the next year.
First, inflation. Recently, inflation has suddenly become the focus of attention of the whole society. Next year the problem will be even more prominent. Because the world is awash with liquidity, the depreciation of the dollar, causing the input of inflation; second, resources, environment, labor and production costs increase; the third is urbanization accelerated, changes in the logistics structure, increase the cost of business; the fourth is in the first half of next year and an factors, plus the PPI and CPI now has been synchronized to, next year's price may is "high to low", the situation is grim, but this is not the key.
Two, foreign trade. Next year's foreign trade growth of the pressure is not light. One is a rebalancing of the global economy, from developed economies trade balance pressure and pressure on the exchange rate will not weaken; the second is net exports year-on-year growth is likely to continue to fall, increases difficulty, the contribution of net exports, and even drag on economic growth; third, if imports continue to grow faster than exports, will lead to smaller surplus, even deficit.
Three, investment. Next year, in the case of increasing pressure on inflation and monetary policy gradually return to neutral, especially real estate investment behavior is difficult to large expansion. Low carbon, environmental protection, energy conservation and other transformation of existing housing, you can digest some of the textile, building materials, decoration and other real estate in the downstream industry excess capacity, increase the employment opportunities of low skilled labor intensive industries.
Four, consumption. Affected by inflation, employment and income growth and other aspects of the pressure, next year expand consumption situation is also a long way to go. Because the inflation is a cost push type plus external input superimposed, in the case of the economic situation tends to be tight, consumer spending behavior will tend to be conservative. At this time, if the stock market and other investment market continued to fall, investors' property income will continue to shrink, and even investment assets also eroded, to expand textile consumption pose a threat.
Five, growth. From next year, in stimulating economic growth in the troika, the tension of the investment in return smoothly, and net export situation is not optimistic, the expansion of consumer and the lack of support from the income growth and the fight against inflation, coupled with the part of macro economic policy may return to a neutral. Therefore, the difficulty of the textile growth next year will be greater than this year. At the same time, due to the reasons for anti inflation, the relevant policies have lagged effects, but also will affect the expectations of the textile economic boom.
Six, profit. Next year, the performance of the performance of textile enterprises may have a great gap. In the first half, in the initial stage of inflation, due to the reasons for price increases, the first two quarters of the textile enterprises profits may have a better performance. However, in the second half or the next period of time, it is to the middle and late period of inflation, textile market demand, if there is a shrinking, coupled with rising production costs, corporate profits will be difficult. Therefore, next year's profit situation is not optimistic about the enterprise.